Coronavirus in Nigeria: Weekly Watch

The weekly analysis of the numbers shows that though there has been a steady rise in the number of new cases, the close of the second week of the lockdown (Week 7) recorded a drop in the number of new cases. So far, the eleventh week of the Coronavirus in Nigeria has recorded the highest number of new cases so far, with its figure at 1763 new cases. It is the beginning of the 14th week of COVID-19 in Nigeria and the beginning of the 5th-week post lockdown and Nigeria has 7526 confirmed cases, with 221 deaths and 2174 recoveries. The current case fatality rate is 3% and the survival rate is 28.9%. In simple terms, in Nigeria, for every 100 cases of COVID-19, 3 people have died, and 29 people have survived. The former is 57% lower than the global CFR and the latter is 10% lower than the global rate. Another important thing to note is that there has been a significant change in the types of cases that Nigeria has:

Nigeria’s first few cases were majorly people who had a travel history to countries with high infection rates; Week 6 showed 47% for this category of case type. However, in the weeks that followed, this trend changed significantly and currently, the case type with the highest representation is the category with no epidemiology link (55%) while the next in line is the category of people who had contacts with those that had a travel history (23%). This means that there is an active spread of COVID-19 within Nigeria’s borders.

As of May 24 2020, 44,458 people have been screened for the coronavirus in Nigeria and about 16.9% of that number came back positive. This is very high compared to South Africa who as of May 10, 2020, had tested 341,336 people since its index case on March 5th (12 weeks ago), and approximately 3% (10,015) came back positive. It is also very high compared to Ghana who as of May 8, 2020, had tested 38,477 people since its index case on March 12th and in the following 10 weeks, about 3.4% (1306) came back positive.

Summary:
  1. The percentage of COVID-19 tests in Nigeria that have come back positive is approximately 16.9%. In South Africa and Ghana, the figure is about 3%, and the two countries have tested more people than Nigeria has.
  2. Nigeria has 7526 confirmed cases, with 221 deaths and 2174 recoveries.
  3. Currently, 55% of the COVID-19 cases have no epidemiology link, while 23% had contacts with people that have a travel history to countries with significant infection rates.