Coronavirus in Nigeria: Watching the Curve

With more than 3 million confirmed infections and up to 269,000 deaths confirmed globally, the coronavirus pandemic is disrupting our world as we know it. At ResearcherNG, we are tracking the outbreak across Nigeria and consolidating data from the NCDC as they provide updates.

A Rising Curve – On February 27, Nigeria had its index COVID-19 case. From there, it took 19 days for Nigeria’s COVID-19 cases to rise to 3. As of March 27, 2020, a month later, there were 81 cases. By April 27, 2020, the number rose to 1337. As of 7 May, 2020 there are 3526 coronavirus infections in Nigeria, with 601 discharged and 107 deaths.

How Are States Faring
Coronavirus cases have been reported in 35 states in Nigeria (FCT inclusive), with Lagos being the epicenter of the outbreak, followed by Kano. Two states haven’t enforced restriction of movement as of 7 May 2020. Five others have their interstate border open, and over 13 states including the FCT and Lagos have eased lockdowns. There are 13 test centers distributed among 10 states in Nigeria, with each geopolitical zone having at least one.

It is the 11th week since Nigeria’s index case and the current case fatality rate (CFR) is 3%. Simply put, for every 100 cases in Nigeria, there are 3 deaths. This is low compared to the 15% CFR in Algeria or the 7.2% CFR in Egypt, or the global 6.9% CFR. However, it is close to the 2.5% cumulative CFR for Africa.